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Alcorcón II vs Real Aranjuez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Aranjuez
Real Aranjuez
11/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 5Campo 2 Alcorcón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Alcorcón II61%
×Draw22%
Real Aranjuez17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcón II
1.89
Real Aranjuez
0.88

Alcorcón II creates 115% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 31 away

creates per match

Alcorcón II
1.48
Real Aranjuez
0.81

allows per match

Alcorcón II
0.94
Real Aranjuez
2.29

finishing

Alcorcón II+0.00on par
Real Aranjuez+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcón II ↓

Real Aranjuez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Alcorcón II or draw
83%
Alcorcón II or Real Aranjuez
78%
Draw or Real Aranjuez
39%

Winning margin

Alcorcón II wins by 2+
36%
Real Aranjuez wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Alcorcón II 1+ goals
85%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
56%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
29%
Real Aranjuez 1+ goals
59%
Real Aranjuez 2+ goals
22%
Real Aranjuez 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
78%
Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcón II at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

Real Aranjuez away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcón II attack 1.48 + Real Aranjuez defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.89

Real Aranjuez attack 0.81 + Alcorcón II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Alcorcón II scores more
61%
level
22%
Real Aranjuez scores more
17%

Alcorcón II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alcorcón II 5 – 0 Real Aranjuez

Alcorcón II beat Real Aranjuez 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Campo 2 Alcorcón in Alcorcón.