Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Aranjuez vs Alcobendas Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Real Aranjuez
Real Aranjuez
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
2/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 22Estadio El Deleite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Aranjuez29%
×Draw26%
Alcobendas Sport44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Aranjuez
1.10
Alcobendas Sport
1.42

Alcobendas Sport creates 29% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 117 away

creates per match

Real Aranjuez
0.90
Alcobendas Sport
1.31

allows per match

Real Aranjuez
1.52
Alcobendas Sport
1.30

finishing

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par
Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Aranjuez ↓

Alcobendas Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Aranjuez or draw
56%
Real Aranjuez or Alcobendas Sport
74%
Draw or Alcobendas Sport
71%

Winning margin

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+
11%
Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals
67%
Real Aranjuez 2+ goals
30%
Real Aranjuez 3+ goals
10%
Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
76%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
41%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)
40%
Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Aranjuez at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Aranjuez attack 0.90 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + Real Aranjuez defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Aranjuez scores more
29%
level
26%
Alcobendas Sport scores more
44%

Alcobendas Sport at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Aranjuez 0 – 2 Alcobendas Sport

Alcobendas Sport beat Real Aranjuez 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Deleite in Aranjuez.