Alcobendas Sport 4–0 Real Aranjuez: Result & Stats

Alcobendas Sport

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Aranjuez

4/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 1Campos Municipales Valle de la Oliva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Alcobendas Sport55%

×Draw23%

Real Aranjuez22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alcobendas SportExpected goals in this matchReal Aranjuez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.04

Alcobendas Sport

1.79

Real Aranjuez

1.04

Alcobendas Sport creates 72% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 31 away

1.30

creates per match

0.81

1.28

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Alcobendas Sport

1.30

Real Aranjuez

0.81

allows per match

Alcobendas Sport

1.28

Real Aranjuez

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Real Aranjuez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcobendas Sport ↓

Real Aranjuez →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Alcobendas Sport or draw

78%

Alcobendas Sport or Real Aranjuez

77%

Draw or Real Aranjuez

45%

Winning margin

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+

31%

Real Aranjuez wins by 2+

Team goals

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals

83%

Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals

53%

Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals

26%

Real Aranjuez 1+ goals

65%

Real Aranjuez 2+ goals

28%

Real Aranjuez 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)

71%

Real Aranjuez (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alcobendas Sport at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

Real Aranjuez away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.30 + Real Aranjuez defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.79

Real Aranjuez attack 0.81 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alcobendas Sport scores more

55%

level

23%

Real Aranjuez scores more

22%

Alcobendas Sport at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alcobendas Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Alcobendas Sport 4–0 Real Aranjuez

Alcobendas Sport beat Real Aranjuez 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 28, 2021.

The match was played at Campos Municipales Valle de la Oliva in Majadahonda.

Alcobendas Sport vs Real Aranjuez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Alcobendas Sport 4–0 Real Aranjuez