Reading W 2–1 Leicester City FC W: Result & Stats

Reading W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Leicester City FC W

10/30/2022

FA WSL · Round 6Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Reading W52%

×Draw23%

Leicester City FC W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Reading WExpected goals in this matchLeicester City FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.17

Reading W

1.82

Leicester City FC W

1.17

Reading W creates 56% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 55 away

1.29

creates per match

0.58

1.75

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Reading W

1.29

Leicester City FC W

0.58

allows per match

Reading W

1.75

Leicester City FC W

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading W+0.00on par

Leicester City FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading W ↓

Leicester City FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Reading W or draw

76%

Reading W or Leicester City FC W

77%

Draw or Leicester City FC W

48%

Winning margin

Reading W wins by 2+

29%

Leicester City FC W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Reading W 1+ goals

84%

Reading W 2+ goals

54%

Reading W 3+ goals

27%

Leicester City FC W 1+ goals

69%

Leicester City FC W 2+ goals

33%

Leicester City FC W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Reading W (draw refunded)

68%

Leicester City FC W (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading W at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.75 · 51 matches

Leicester City FC W away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.36 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading W attack 1.29 + Leicester City FC W defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.82

Leicester City FC W attack 0.58 + Reading W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Reading W scores more

52%

level

23%

Leicester City FC W scores more

24%

Reading W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Reading W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff