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Leicester City FC W vs Reading W — FA WSL 2018

Leicester City FC W
Leicester City FC W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Reading W
Reading W
4/2/2023FA WSLFA WSL · Round 17King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Leicester City FC W38%
×Draw24%
Reading W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester City FC W
1.55
Reading W
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 49 away

creates per match

Leicester City FC W
1.00
Reading W
1.16

allows per match

Leicester City FC W
1.91
Reading W
2.10

finishing

Leicester City FC W+0.00on par
Reading W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester City FC W ↓

Reading W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Leicester City FC W or draw
62%
Leicester City FC W or Reading W
76%
Draw or Reading W
62%

Winning margin

Leicester City FC W wins by 2+
19%
Reading W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Leicester City FC W 1+ goals
79%
Leicester City FC W 2+ goals
46%
Leicester City FC W 3+ goals
20%
Reading W 1+ goals
78%
Reading W 2+ goals
45%
Reading W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Leicester City FC W (draw refunded)
51%
Reading W (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester City FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.91 · 55 matches

Reading W away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.10 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester City FC W attack 1.00 + Reading W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.55

Reading W attack 1.16 + Leicester City FC W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leicester City FC W scores more
38%
level
24%
Reading W scores more
38%

Leicester City FC W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leicester City FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Leicester City FC W 2–1 Reading W

Leicester City FC W beat Reading W 2-1 in FA WSL on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.