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Reading W vs Birmingham City W — FA WSL 2018

Reading W
Reading W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Birmingham City W
Birmingham City W
10/11/2020FA WSLFA WSL · Round 3Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Reading W43%
×Draw24%
Birmingham City W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading W
1.60
Birmingham City W
1.36

Reading W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 38 away

creates per match

Reading W
1.29
Birmingham City W
0.97

allows per match

Reading W
1.75
Birmingham City W
1.92

finishing

Reading W+0.00on par
Birmingham City W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading W ↓

Birmingham City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Reading W or draw
67%
Reading W or Birmingham City W
76%
Draw or Birmingham City W
57%

Winning margin

Reading W wins by 2+
22%
Birmingham City W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Reading W 1+ goals
80%
Reading W 2+ goals
47%
Reading W 3+ goals
22%
Birmingham City W 1+ goals
74%
Birmingham City W 2+ goals
39%
Birmingham City W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Reading W (draw refunded)
57%
Birmingham City W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading W at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.75 · 51 matches

Birmingham City W away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading W attack 1.29 + Birmingham City W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.60

Birmingham City W attack 0.97 + Reading W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Reading W scores more
43%
level
24%
Birmingham City W scores more
33%

Reading W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Reading W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reading W vs Birmingham City W

Birmingham City W beat Reading W 1-0 in FA WSL on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.