Birmingham City W vs Reading W

Birmingham City W

CANC

18:30

Reading W

5/6/2020

FA WSL · Round 14SportNation.bet Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Birmingham City W38%

×Draw25%

Reading W37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Birmingham City WExpected goals in this matchReading W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.40

Birmingham City W

1.41

Reading W

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 49 away

0.71

creates per match

1.16

1.63

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Birmingham City W

0.71

Reading W

1.16

allows per match

Birmingham City W

1.63

Reading W

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham City W+0.00on par

Reading W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham City W ↓

Reading W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Birmingham City W or draw

63%

Birmingham City W or Reading W

75%

Draw or Reading W

62%

Winning margin

Birmingham City W wins by 2+

17%

Reading W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Birmingham City W 1+ goals

76%

Birmingham City W 2+ goals

41%

Birmingham City W 3+ goals

17%

Reading W 1+ goals

75%

Reading W 2+ goals

41%

Reading W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Birmingham City W (draw refunded)

50%

Reading W (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham City W at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.63 · 38 matches

Reading W away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.10 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham City W attack 0.71 + Reading W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.41

Reading W attack 1.16 + Birmingham City W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Birmingham City W scores more

38%

level

25%

Reading W scores more

37%

Birmingham City W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Birmingham City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff