Reading 2–2 Watford: Result & Stats | Championship

Reading

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Watford

J. Hendrick 80'

T. Ince 66' (pen)

R. Porteous 48'

I. Sarr 30'

2/4/2023

Championship · Round 30Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading41%

×Draw26%

Watford32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.20

Reading

1.39

Watford

1.20

Reading creates 16% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 122 away

1.38

creates per match

1.06

1.34

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Reading

1.38

Watford

1.06

allows per match

Reading

1.34

Watford

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Reading or draw

68%

Reading or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

59%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

19%

Watford wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

75%

Reading 2+ goals

40%

Reading 3+ goals

16%

Watford 1+ goals

70%

Watford 2+ goals

34%

Watford 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

56%

Watford (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Watford away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.40 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Watford defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Watford attack 1.06 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Reading scores more

41%

level

26%

Watford scores more

32%

Reading at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

T. Ince

Reading · F

8.3

Match Events

30'

I. Sarr↳ Henrique Araújo

32'

Amadou Salif Mbengue

48'

R. Porteous↳ Matheus Martins

56'

T. Fornah← C. Casadei

64'

Matheus Martins

66'

T. IncePenalty

67'

O. Azeez← J. Hoilett

71'

João Pedro← K. Davis

71'

B. Assombalonga← Henrique Araújo

76'

Hassane Kamara

80'

J. Hendrick↳ T. Ince

81'

T. Adeyemo← Matheus Martins

81'

84'

86'

86'

87'

90+5'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingWatford

Overview

42%Possession58%

14Total Shots12

4Corners4

17Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots12

6On Target4

4Off Target2

4Blocked6

8Inside Box9

6Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

330Total Passes459

211Accurate Passes340

64%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls17

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides4

Championship: Reading 2–2 Watford

Reading and Watford drew 2-2 in Championship on February 4, 2023.

Goals: I. Sarr (30'), R. Porteous (48'), T. Ince (66' pen), J. Hendrick (80').

Watford controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.

Reading vs Watford — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Reading 2–2 Watford