Reading 1–0 Watford: Result & Stats | Championship

Reading

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Watford

G. Puşcaş 41'

10/3/2020

Championship · Round 4Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading41%

×Draw26%

Watford32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.20

Reading

1.39

Watford

1.20

Reading creates 16% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 122 away

1.38

creates per match

1.06

1.34

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Reading

1.38

Watford

1.06

allows per match

Reading

1.34

Watford

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Reading or draw

68%

Reading or Watford

74%

Draw or Watford

59%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

19%

Watford wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

75%

Reading 2+ goals

40%

Reading 3+ goals

16%

Watford 1+ goals

70%

Watford 2+ goals

34%

Watford 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

56%

Watford (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Watford away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.40 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Watford defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Watford attack 1.06 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Reading scores more

41%

level

26%

Watford scores more

32%

Reading at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

T. Holmes

Reading · D

7.9

Match Events

37'

K. Sema← T. Dele-Bashiru

39'

Josh Laurent

40'

Ben Wilmot

41'

G. Puşcaş↳ T. Holmes

61'

T. Mcintyre← M. Olise

62'

Omar Richards

69'

T. Cleverley← Kiko Femenía

82'

84'

87'

87'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingWatford

Overview

44%Possession56%

9Total Shots11

1Corners5

13Fouls19

Shots

9Total Shots11

4On Target2

4Off Target5

1Blocked4

5Inside Box5

4Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

396Total Passes484

320Accurate Passes401

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls19

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1