Reading 2–3 Portsmouth: Result & Stats | League One

Reading

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Portsmouth

C. Savage 27'

L. Wing 23'

T. Devlin 58'

C. Bishop 45+9'

T. Anjorin 33'

10/28/2023

League One · Round 16Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Reading40%

×Draw27%

Portsmouth34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.20

Reading

1.33

Portsmouth

1.20

Reading creates 11% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 135 away

1.58

creates per match

1.33

1.06

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Reading

1.58

Portsmouth

1.33

allows per match

Reading

1.06

Portsmouth

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Reading or draw

66%

Reading or Portsmouth

73%

Draw or Portsmouth

60%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

18%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

74%

Reading 2+ goals

38%

Reading 3+ goals

15%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

70%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

34%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

54%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.58 + Portsmouth defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Portsmouth attack 1.33 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Reading scores more

40%

level

27%

Portsmouth scores more

34%

Reading at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Bishop

Portsmouth · F

8.3

Match Events

23'

27'

33'

45+5'

45+9'

52'

Nesta Guinness-Walker

58'

T. Devlin↳ C. Bishop

60'

Alex Robertson

62'

G. Whyte← T. Anjorin

66'

B. Elliott← H. Knibbs

66'

A. Mbengue← N. Guinness-Walker

66'

P. Mukairu← O. Azeez

73'

C. Saydee← T. Devlin

73'

A. Kamara← P. Lane

75'

K. Ehibhatiomhan← C. Savage

75'

82'

89'

90'

90+9'

90+1'

S. Raggett← A. Robertson

90+2'

Z. Swanson← J. Sparkes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingPortsmouth

Overview

39%Possession61%

13Total Shots18

6Corners9

14Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots18

5On Target9

4Off Target6

4Blocked3

8Inside Box12

5Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

314Total Passes497

205Accurate Passes383

65%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls8

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1

League One: Reading 2–3 Portsmouth

Portsmouth beat Reading 3-2 in League One on October 28, 2023.

Goals: L. Wing (23'), C. Savage (27'), T. Anjorin (33'), C. Bishop (45+9'), T. Devlin (58').

Portsmouth controlled possession (61%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.

Reading vs Portsmouth — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League One: Reading 2–3 Portsmouth