Portsmouth 1–2 Reading: Result & Stats | League #48

Portsmouth

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Reading

O. Singerr 90'

K. Ehibhatiomhan 38'

A. Garcia 34'

8/12/2025

League #48 · 1st RoundFratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portsmouth19%

×Draw20%

Reading61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

2.23

Portsmouth

1.17

Reading

2.23

Reading creates 91% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

2.67

1.80

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.00

Reading

2.67

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.80

Reading

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

39%

Portsmouth or Reading

80%

Draw or Reading

81%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

7%

Reading wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

69%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

33%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

11%

Reading 1+ goals

89%

Reading 2+ goals

65%

Reading 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

24%

Reading (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Reading away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.00 + Reading defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Reading attack 2.67 + Portsmouth defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Portsmouth scores more

19%

level

20%

Reading scores more

61%

Reading at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

A. Ahmed

Reading · D

8.0

Match Events

34'

A. Garcia

38'

K. Ehibhatiomhan↳ T. Rushesha

46'

A. Dozzell← J. Swift

53'

Luke Le Roux

61'

F. Bianchini← T. Waddingham

62'

R. Poole← I. Bowat

64'

C. Savage← T. Rushesha

65'

B. Elliott← K. Doyle

65'

D. Kyerewaa← A. Garcia

67'

M. O'Mahony← K. Ehibhatiomhan

70'

A. Segecic← L. Le Roux

70'

O. Singerr← M. Kosznovszky

72'

L. Fraser← S. Spencer

80'

Liam Fraser

90+5'

Regan Poole

90'

John Ryan

90'

O. Singerr↳ A. Segecic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthReading

Overview

63%Possession37%

11Total Shots11

2.36Expected Goals (xG)2.03

6Corners6

11Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots11

3On Target6

2Off Target2

6Blocked3

7Inside Box9

4Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

482Total Passes276

394Accurate Passes176

82%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1