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Reading vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Millwall
Millwall
A. Voglsammer 11' (pen)
3/11/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 36Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading39%
×Draw27%
Millwall34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.30
Millwall
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 189 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Millwall
1.04

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Millwall
1.23

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Millwall+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Reading or draw
66%
Reading or Millwall
73%
Draw or Millwall
61%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
18%
Millwall wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
73%
Reading 2+ goals
37%
Reading 3+ goals
14%
Millwall 1+ goals
70%
Millwall 2+ goals
33%
Millwall 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
54%
Millwall (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 189 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Millwall defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Millwall attack 1.04 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Reading scores more
39%
level
27%
Millwall scores more
34%

Reading at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
A. VoglsammerMillwallMillwall · M
7.3

Match Events

11'
A. VoglsammerPenalty
46'
L. Moore← S. Dann
46'
A. Mbengue← A. Yiadom
60'
C. Casadei← N. Guinness-Walker
61'
Lucas João← S. Long
78'
O. Azeez← T. Mcintyre
78'
S. Hutchinson← A. Voglsammer
78'
O. Burke← G. Honeyman
86'
Thomas Ince

Possession

60%Reading

Shots

2Reading

Pass accuracy

54%Reading

Statistics

ReadingMillwall
Overview
60%Possession40%
2Total Shots8
2Corners2
15Fouls14
Shots
2Total Shots8
0On Target1
1Off Target5
1Blocked2
0Inside Box6
2Outside Box2
Passing
60%Possession40%
432Total Passes298
318Accurate Passes186
74%Pass Accuracy62%
Discipline
15Fouls14
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Reading vs Millwall

Millwall beat Reading 1-0 in Championship on March 11, 2023.

Goals: A. Voglsammer (11' pen).

Reading controlled possession (60%) and registered 2 shots to 8.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.