Reading 1–2 Millwall: Result & Stats | Championship

Reading

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Millwall

Alfa Semedo 17'

M. Bennett 85'

M. Smith 76'

2/13/2021

Championship · Round 29Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading39%

×Draw27%

Millwall34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.19

Reading

1.30

Millwall

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 189 away

1.38

creates per match

1.04

1.34

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Reading

1.38

Millwall

1.04

allows per match

Reading

1.34

Millwall

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Millwall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Reading or draw

66%

Reading or Millwall

73%

Draw or Millwall

61%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

18%

Millwall wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

73%

Reading 2+ goals

37%

Reading 3+ goals

14%

Millwall 1+ goals

70%

Millwall 2+ goals

33%

Millwall 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

54%

Millwall (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 189 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Millwall defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Millwall attack 1.04 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Reading scores more

39%

level

27%

Millwall scores more

34%

Reading at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

G. Evans

Millwall · D

7.9

Match Events

17'

Alfa Semedo

46'

J. Wallace← S. Williams

46'

M. Bennett← J. Böðvarsson

63'

M. Smith← B. Thompson

65'

Shaun Hutchinson

71'

T. Bradshaw← K. Zohorè

76'

A. Yiadom← T. Holmes

76'

M. Smith

85'

M. Bennett

87'

S. Baldock← L. Gibson

87'

O. Richards← J. Laurent

90'

Jed Wallace

90+3'

B. Mitchell← R. Woods

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingMillwall

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots16

4Corners5

8Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots16

6On Target4

7Off Target8

4Blocked4

9Inside Box10

8Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

443Total Passes361

325Accurate Passes237

73%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls17

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0