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Reading vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
A. Halilović 55'
9/25/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 9Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading37%
×Draw26%
Middlesbrough37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.36
Middlesbrough
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 185 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Middlesbrough
1.37

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Middlesbrough
1.34

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Reading or draw
63%
Reading or Middlesbrough
74%
Draw or Middlesbrough
63%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
17%
Middlesbrough wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
74%
Reading 2+ goals
39%
Reading 3+ goals
16%
Middlesbrough 1+ goals
74%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
39%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
50%
Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.34 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Middlesbrough defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Reading scores more
37%
level
26%
Middlesbrough scores more
37%

Reading at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
L. SouthwoodReadingReading · G
7.5

Match Events

43'
Isaiah Jones
50'
Dejan Tetek
55'
A. Halilović↳ J. Swift
61'
Lee Peltier
61'
J. Lea Siliki← M. Payero
62'
T. Olusanya← I. Jones
79'
Luke Southwood
79'
D. Watmore← A. Šporar
81'
Abdul Baba Rahman
87'
Matt Crooks
90+2'
Paddy McNair
90+9'
G. Puşcaş← J. Hoilett
90+2'
M. Stickland← D. Tetek

Possession

55%Reading

Shots

13Reading

Pass accuracy

51%Reading

Statistics

ReadingMiddlesbrough
Overview
55%Possession45%
13Total Shots10
2Corners4
6Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots10
5On Target2
2Off Target6
6Blocked2
6Inside Box8
7Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
474Total Passes373
400Accurate Passes298
84%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
6Fouls15
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Reading vs Middlesbrough

Reading beat Middlesbrough 1-0 in Championship on September 25, 2021.

Goals: A. Halilović (55').

Reading controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.