Reading 0–2 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Reading

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Middlesbrough

M. Bola 29'

A. Fletcher 22'

2/20/2021

Championship · Round 31Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading37%

×Draw26%

Middlesbrough37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.35

Reading

1.36

Middlesbrough

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 185 away

1.38

creates per match

1.37

1.34

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Reading

1.38

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Reading

1.34

Middlesbrough

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Reading or draw

63%

Reading or Middlesbrough

74%

Draw or Middlesbrough

63%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

17%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

74%

Reading 2+ goals

39%

Reading 3+ goals

16%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

74%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

39%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

50%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.34 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Middlesbrough defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Reading scores more

37%

level

26%

Middlesbrough scores more

37%

Reading at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

D. Fry

Middlesbrough · D

7.6

Match Events

22'

A. Fletcher↳ D. Fry

29'

M. Bola↳ Sam Morsy

43'

Omar Richards

46'

Tomás Esteves← Alfa Semedo

46'

L. Gibson← O. Richards

59'

Andy Rinomhota

65'

M. Johnson← D. Watmore

71'

Jonathan Howson

78'

G. Puşcaş← O. Ejaria

78'

N. Mendez-Laing← D. Fisher

78'

G. Saville← N. Kebano

86'

S. Aluko← M. Olise

90'

Ashley Fletcher

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingMiddlesbrough

Overview

63%Possession37%

13Total Shots8

5Corners4

8Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots8

3On Target5

7Off Target1

3Blocked2

8Inside Box4

5Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

488Total Passes282

380Accurate Passes170

78%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4