Reading 0–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Reading

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Middlesbrough

G. Friend 77'

12/22/2018

Championship · Round 23Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading37%

×Draw26%

Middlesbrough37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.35

Reading

1.36

Middlesbrough

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 185 away

1.38

creates per match

1.37

1.34

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Reading

1.38

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Reading

1.34

Middlesbrough

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Reading or draw

63%

Reading or Middlesbrough

74%

Draw or Middlesbrough

63%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

17%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

74%

Reading 2+ goals

39%

Reading 3+ goals

16%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

74%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

39%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

50%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.34 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Middlesbrough defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Reading scores more

37%

level

26%

Middlesbrough scores more

37%

Reading at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

D. Randolph

Middlesbrough · G

7.8

Match Events

38'

P. McNair← R. Shotton

41'

Muhamed Bešić

66'

L. Wing← M. Bešić

67'

J. Hugill← B. Assombalonga

70'

73'

77'

79'

82'

85'

J. Böðvarsson← O. Richards

90'

Tyler Blackett

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingMiddlesbrough

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots18

9Corners8

12Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots18

4On Target6

5Off Target5

3Blocked7

7Inside Box12

5Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

447Total Passes319

333Accurate Passes229

74%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides4

Championship: Reading 0–1 Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough beat Reading 1-0 in Championship on December 22, 2018.

Goals: G. Friend (77').

Reading controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 18.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading.

Reading vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Reading 0–1 Middlesbrough