Reading 1–1 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Reading

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mansfield Town

J. Marriott 71'

T. Roberts 7'

10/4/2025

League One · Round 11Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Reading43%

×Draw28%

Mansfield Town29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.02

Reading

1.32

Mansfield Town

1.02

Reading creates 29% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.36

creates per match

0.98

1.06

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Reading

1.36

Mansfield Town

0.98

allows per match

Reading

1.06

Mansfield Town

1.28

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Reading+0.14scores more

Mansfield Town+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Reading or draw

71%

Reading or Mansfield Town

72%

Draw or Mansfield Town

57%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

20%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

73%

Reading 2+ goals

38%

Reading 3+ goals

15%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

64%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

27%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

60%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.06 · 12 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.36 + Mansfield Town defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mansfield Town attack 0.98 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Reading scores more

43%

level

28%

Mansfield Town scores more

29%

Reading at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

T. Roberts

Mansfield Town · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

T. Roberts

61'

K. Abrefa← A. Ahmed

61'

K. Ehibhatiomhan← P. Lane

61'

M. Ritchie← D. Kyerewaa

65'

R. Sweeney← S. McLaughlin

66'

Finley Burns

71'

G. Maris← T. Roberts

71'

J. Gardner← R. Oates

71'

J. Marriott↳ M. Ritchie

81'

D. Dwyer← N. Moriah-Welsh

81'

M. Dickov← W. Evans

89'

M. O'Mahony← K. Doyle

90+2'

Matt Ritchie

90+6'

Kyle Knoyle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingMansfield

Overview

61%Possession39%

16Total Shots14

4Corners5

13Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots14

3On Target2

7Off Target6

6Blocked6

6Inside Box8

10Outside Box6

Passing

61%Possession39%

529Total Passes340

457Accurate Passes249

86%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2