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Reading vs Mansfield Town — League One 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
T. Bindon 55'
Mamadi Camará 17'
W. Evans 45'
12/29/2024League OneLeague One · Round 23Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Reading43%
×Draw28%
Mansfield Town29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.32
Mansfield Town
1.02

Reading creates 29% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Reading
1.36
Mansfield Town
0.98

allows per match

Reading
1.06
Mansfield Town
1.28

finishing

Reading+0.14scores more
Mansfield Town+0.11scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Reading or draw
71%
Reading or Mansfield Town
72%
Draw or Mansfield Town
57%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
20%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
73%
Reading 2+ goals
38%
Reading 3+ goals
15%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
64%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
27%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
60%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.06 · 12 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.36 + Mansfield Town defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mansfield Town attack 0.98 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Reading scores more
43%
level
28%
Mansfield Town scores more
29%

Reading at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
L. WingReadingReading · M
8.2

Match Events

17'
Mamadi Camará↳ L. Wing
45'
W. Evans↳ E. Hewitt
54'
Will Evans
55'
T. Bindon
65'
S. McLaughlin← B. Cargill
65'
H. Boateng← K. Baccus
75'
S. Quinn← L. Reed
75'
L. Gregory← E. Hewitt
78'
Amadou Salif Mbengue
80'
A. Garcia← A. Kanu
80'
J. Wareham← Mamadi Camará
83'
Stephen McLaughlin
89'
A. Flint← J. Bowery
90+2'
Jayden Wareham
90'
H. Dean← S. Smith

Possession

35%Reading

Shots

9Reading

Pass accuracy

45%Reading

Statistics

ReadingMansfield
Overview
35%Possession65%
9Total Shots15
0Corners7
11Fouls15
Shots
9Total Shots15
5On Target2
3Off Target6
1Blocked7
4Inside Box11
5Outside Box4
Passing
35%Possession65%
240Total Passes418
140Accurate Passes302
58%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides6

Match Recap: Reading vs Mansfield Town

Reading beat Mansfield Town 2-1 in League One on December 29, 2024.

Goals: Mamadi Camará (17'), W. Evans (45'), T. Bindon (55').

Mansfield Town controlled possession (65%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.