Reading 2–3 Coventry: Result & Stats | Championship

Reading

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Coventry

A. Yiadom 55'

Lucas João 23'

I. Maatsen 65'

M. Rose 47'

D. Hyam 45+2'

2/12/2022

Championship · Round 32Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading38%

×Draw26%

Coventry36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.31

Reading

1.36

Coventry

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 143 away

1.38

creates per match

1.28

1.34

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Reading

1.38

Coventry

1.28

allows per match

Reading

1.34

Coventry

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Reading or draw

64%

Reading or Coventry

74%

Draw or Coventry

62%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

17%

Coventry wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

74%

Reading 2+ goals

39%

Reading 3+ goals

16%

Coventry 1+ goals

73%

Coventry 2+ goals

38%

Coventry 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

52%

Coventry (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.35 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Coventry defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Coventry attack 1.28 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Reading scores more

38%

level

26%

Coventry scores more

36%

Reading at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

G. Hamer

Coventry · M

8.5

Match Events

14'

Jake Bidwell

23'

Lucas João↳ J. Hoilett

29'

Gustavo Hamer

37'

Dominic Hyam

45+2'

D. Hyam↳ G. Hamer

47'

M. Rose↳ G. Hamer

55'

57'

63'

63'

65'

I. Maatsen↳ V. Gyökeres

66'

J. Shipley← J. Bidwell

69'

Y. Meïté← A. Rinomhota

72'

84'

85'

87'

88'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingCoventry

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots13

4Corners5

9Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots13

4On Target4

3Off Target7

5Blocked2

5Inside Box8

7Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

419Total Passes517

331Accurate Passes412

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls9

3Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0