Reading 3–0 Coventry: Result & Stats | Championship

Reading

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Coventry

J. Swift 72'

A. Rinomhota 46'

Lucas João 16'

1/19/2021

Championship · Round 25Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Reading38%

×Draw26%

Coventry36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.31

Reading

1.36

Coventry

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 143 away

1.38

creates per match

1.28

1.34

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Reading

1.38

Coventry

1.28

allows per match

Reading

1.34

Coventry

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Coventry+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Reading or draw

64%

Reading or Coventry

74%

Draw or Coventry

62%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

17%

Coventry wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

74%

Reading 2+ goals

39%

Reading 3+ goals

16%

Coventry 1+ goals

73%

Coventry 2+ goals

38%

Coventry 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

52%

Coventry (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.35 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Coventry defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Coventry attack 1.28 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Reading scores more

38%

level

26%

Coventry scores more

36%

Reading at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Swift

Reading · M

8.0

Match Events

16'

Lucas João↳ J. Swift

29'

Thomas Holmes

46'

Tomás Esteves← T. Holmes

46'

A. Rinomhota↳ Lucas João

59'

M. Biamou← V. Gyökeres

60'

64'

71'

71'

72'

73'

Alfa Semedo← J. Swift

78'

D. Tetek← O. Ejaria

78'

S. Baldock← A. Rinomhota

79'

79'

80'

87'

87'

J. Thompson← L. Østigård

87'

W. Bapaga← J. Shipley

90'

Michael Morrison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingCoventry

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots7

0Corners5

12Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots7

6On Target2

4Off Target4

2Blocked1

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

454Total Passes533

376Accurate Passes436

83%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3

Championship: Reading 3–0 Coventry

Reading beat Coventry 3-0 in Championship on January 19, 2021.

Goals: Lucas João (16'), A. Rinomhota (46'), J. Swift (72').

Coventry controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 12.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.

Reading vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Reading 3–0 Coventry