Reading 1–3 Cardiff: Result & Stats | League One

Reading

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Cardiff

D. Kyerewaa 73'

P. Ng 86'

O. Kellyman 55'

R. Colwill 40'

4/18/2026

League One · Round 44Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Reading33%

×Draw25%

Cardiff41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.48

Reading

1.30

Cardiff

1.48

Cardiff creates 14% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

1.43

creates per match

1.74

1.22

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Reading

1.43

Cardiff

1.74

allows per match

Reading

1.22

Cardiff

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Reading or draw

59%

Reading or Cardiff

75%

Draw or Cardiff

67%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

15%

Cardiff wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

73%

Reading 2+ goals

37%

Reading 3+ goals

14%

Cardiff 1+ goals

77%

Cardiff 2+ goals

43%

Cardiff 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

45%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.43 + Cardiff defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Cardiff attack 1.74 + Reading defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Reading scores more

33%

level

25%

Cardiff scores more

41%

Cardiff at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

O. Kellyman

Cardiff · F

9.3

Match Events

40'

R. Colwill↳ R. Wintle

41'

Gabriel Osho

55'

O. Kellyman↳ R. Wintle

63'

Daniel Kyerewaa

63'

Ryan Wintle

64'

Paudie O’Connor

67'

D. Turnbull← A. Robertson

69'

72'

73'

74'

82'

82'

Y. Salech← C. Willock

82'

J. Colwill← R. Colwill

86'

P. Ng↳ O. Kellyman

88'

K. Abrefa← R. Nyambe

88'

M. Ritchie← H. Roberts

88'

L. Fraser← A. Rinomhota

90+10'

William Fish

90'

C. Robinson← O. Tanner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingCardiff

Overview

37%Possession63%

15Total Shots15

2.36Expected Goals (xG)1.35

7Corners9

6Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots15

7On Target9

5Off Target3

3Blocked3

11Inside Box7

4Outside Box8

Passing

37%Possession63%

258Total Passes441

174Accurate Passes368

67%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Reading vs Cardiff

Cardiff beat Reading 3-1 in League One on April 18, 2026.

Goals: R. Colwill (40'), O. Kellyman (55'), D. Kyerewaa (73'), P. Ng (86').

Cardiff controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 15.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading.

Reading vs Cardiff — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Reading vs Cardiff