Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cardiff vs Reading — League One 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Reading
Reading
Y. Salech 65'
O. Kellyman 49'
L. Wing 38'
10/18/2025League OneLeague One · Round 13Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Cardiff51%
×Draw23%
Reading25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
1.78
Reading
1.18

Cardiff creates 51% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Cardiff
2.17
Reading
1.35

allows per match

Cardiff
1.00
Reading
1.39

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
75%
Cardiff or Reading
77%
Draw or Reading
49%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
28%
Reading wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
83%
Cardiff 2+ goals
53%
Cardiff 3+ goals
26%
Reading 1+ goals
69%
Reading 2+ goals
33%
Reading 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
67%
Reading (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Reading away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 2.17 + Reading defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.78

Reading attack 1.35 + Cardiff defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cardiff scores more
51%
level
23%
Reading scores more
25%

Cardiff at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. WingReadingReading · M
9.0

Match Events

38'
L. Wing↳ M. Ritchie
46'
W. Fish← G. Osho
49'
O. Kellyman↳ R. Kpakio
64'
I. Davies← O. Kellyman
64'
C. Robinson← J. Colwill
65'
Y. Salech↳ R. Kpakio
69'
K. Ehibhatiomhan← K. Doyle
70'
A. Yiadom← K. Abrefa
70'
D. Kyerewaa← M. Ritchie
74'
M. Jacob← J. R. Dorsett A.
76'
Nathan Trott
79'
C. Ashford← C. Willock
86'
M. O'Mahony← P. Lane
90'
P. Ng←

Possession

56%Cardiff

Shots

11Cardiff

Pass accuracy

52%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffReading
Overview
56%Possession44%
11Total Shots26
4Corners10
11Fouls26
Shots
11Total Shots26
3On Target10
3Off Target8
5Blocked8
8Inside Box11
3Outside Box15
Passing
56%Possession44%
417Total Passes311
307Accurate Passes208
74%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
8Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls26
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Reading

Cardiff beat Reading 2-1 in League One on October 18, 2025.

Goals: L. Wing (38'), O. Kellyman (49'), Y. Salech (65').

Cardiff controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 26.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Cardiff.