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Reading vs Cardiff — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
Y. Meïté 90+4'
K. Moore 87' (pen)
4/16/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 42Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Reading42%
×Draw26%
Cardiff33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.46
Cardiff
1.26

Reading creates 16% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 144 away

creates per match

Reading
1.37
Cardiff
1.14

allows per match

Reading
1.38
Cardiff
1.55

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Reading or draw
67%
Reading or Cardiff
74%
Draw or Cardiff
58%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
20%
Cardiff wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
77%
Reading 2+ goals
43%
Reading 3+ goals
18%
Cardiff 1+ goals
72%
Cardiff 2+ goals
36%
Cardiff 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
56%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.38 · 117 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.37 + Cardiff defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cardiff attack 1.14 + Reading defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Reading scores more
42%
level
26%
Cardiff scores more
33%

Reading at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
K. MooreCardiffCardiff · F
7.9

Match Events

46'
Curtis Nelson
50'
Marlon Pack
58'
G. Puşcaş← Lucas João
70'
J. Murphy← M. Pack
77'
J. Swift← A. Rinomhota
78'
Ciaron Brown
81'
S. Ojo← H. Wilson
87'
K. MoorePenalty
90'
D. Tetek← M. Olise
90'
S. Baldock← A. Yiadom
90'
S. Aluko← O. Richards
90+4'
Y. Meïté↳ S. Baldock

Possession

65%Reading

Shots

15Reading

Pass accuracy

54%Reading

Statistics

ReadingCardiff
Overview
65%Possession35%
15Total Shots10
3Corners3
17Fouls16
Shots
15Total Shots10
4On Target5
4Off Target3
7Blocked2
8Inside Box4
7Outside Box6
Passing
65%Possession35%
568Total Passes300
474Accurate Passes210
83%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls16
0Yellow Cards3
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Reading vs Cardiff

Reading and Cardiff drew 1-1 in Championship on April 16, 2021.

Goals: K. Moore (87' pen), Y. Meïté (90+4').

Reading controlled possession (65%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.