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Reading vs Brentford — Championship 2018

Reading
Reading
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Brentford
Brentford
Y. Meïté 15', 8'
N. Maupay 45'
4/13/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 42Madejski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Reading34%
×Draw26%
Brentford40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reading
1.24
Brentford
1.38

Brentford creates 11% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 70 away

creates per match

Reading
1.38
Brentford
1.41

allows per match

Reading
1.34
Brentford
1.10

finishing

Reading+0.00on par
Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Brentford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Reading or draw
60%
Reading or Brentford
74%
Draw or Brentford
66%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+
14%
Brentford wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals
71%
Reading 2+ goals
35%
Reading 3+ goals
13%
Brentford 1+ goals
75%
Brentford 2+ goals
40%
Brentford 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)
46%
Brentford (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Brentford defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Brentford attack 1.41 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Reading scores more
34%
level
26%
Brentford scores more
40%

Brentford at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
Y. MeïtéReadingReading · F
8.6

Match Events

8'
Y. Meïté↳ M. Barrow
15'
Y. Meïté↳ L. Baker
37'
Ovie Ejaria
44'
Andy Rinomhota
45'
N. Maupay
51'
Mads Bech Sørensen
56'
Chris Gunter
59'
Sergi Canós← S. Benrahma
68'
E. Marcondes← J. Dasilva
69'
G. McCleary← M. Barrow
78'
M. Forss← M. Odubajo
85'
C. Harriott← Y. Meïté
87'
Callum Harriott
89'
T. Blackett← Nélson Oliveira

Possession

38%Reading

Shots

11Reading

Pass accuracy

47%Reading

Statistics

ReadingBrentford
Overview
38%Possession62%
11Total Shots15
3Corners12
14Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots15
4On Target8
5Off Target3
2Blocked4
6Inside Box9
5Outside Box6
Passing
38%Possession62%
342Total Passes529
264Accurate Passes453
77%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls14
4Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Championship: Reading 2–1 Brentford

Reading beat Brentford 2-1 in Championship on April 13, 2019.

Goals: Y. Meïté (8', 15'), N. Maupay (45').

Brentford controlled possession (62%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Madejski Stadium in Reading.