Brentford 1–0 Reading: Result & Stats

Brentford

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Reading

O. Watkins 62'

11/23/2019

Championship · Round 17Griffin Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Brentford56%

×Draw24%

Reading20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrentfordExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.93

Brentford

1.71

Reading

0.93

Brentford creates 84% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 112 away

1.93

creates per match

0.99

0.87

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Brentford

1.93

Reading

0.99

allows per match

Brentford

0.87

Reading

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brentford+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Brentford or draw

80%

Brentford or Reading

76%

Draw or Reading

44%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+

31%

Reading wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals

82%

Brentford 2+ goals

51%

Brentford 3+ goals

24%

Reading 1+ goals

61%

Reading 2+ goals

24%

Reading 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)

73%

Reading (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 68 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.93 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.71

Reading attack 0.99 + Brentford defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Brentford scores more

56%

level

24%

Reading scores more

20%

Brentford at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Swift

Reading · M

7.8

Match Events

4'

9'

29'

50'

60'

G. McCleary← G. Puşcaş

62'

O. Watkins↳ M. Jensen

71'

L. Boyé← A. Rinomhota

78'

Joshua Da Silva

79'

Yakou Meite

81'

J. Žambůrek← S. Benrahma

82'

Mathias Jensen

90+1'

J. Oksanen← J. Dasilva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrentfordReading

Overview

57%Possession43%

11Total Shots6

8Corners7

13Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots6

4On Target1

3Off Target3

4Blocked2

6Inside Box4

5Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

483Total Passes361

386Accurate Passes255

80%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4