Reading 3–2 Blackpool: Result & Stats | League One

Reading

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Blackpool

O. Azeez 71'

H. Knibbs 68'

S. Smith 45+2'

J. Lawrence-Gabriel 90+2'

K. Dembélé 4'

4/27/2024

League One · Round 46Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Reading50%

×Draw26%

Blackpool25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.99

Reading

1.52

Blackpool

0.99

Reading creates 54% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.36

creates per match

0.91

1.06

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Reading

1.36

Blackpool

0.91

allows per match

Reading

1.06

Blackpool

1.68

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Reading+0.14scores more

Blackpool+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Reading or draw

75%

Reading or Blackpool

74%

Draw or Blackpool

50%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

25%

Blackpool wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

78%

Reading 2+ goals

45%

Reading 3+ goals

20%

Blackpool 1+ goals

63%

Blackpool 2+ goals

26%

Blackpool 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

67%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.06 · 12 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.68 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.36 + Blackpool defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Blackpool attack 0.91 + Reading defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Reading scores more

50%

level

26%

Blackpool scores more

25%

Reading at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

O. Azeez

Reading · M

9.2

Match Events

4'

K. Dembélé↳ K. Joseph

45+2'

S. Smith↳ O. Azeez

66'

Mamadi Camará← K. Ehibhatiomhan

68'

H. Knibbs↳ Mamadi Camará

71'

O. Azeez↳ S. Smith

76'

C. Savage← B. Elliott

76'

T. Holmes← T. Bindon

77'

O. Norburn← G. Byers

77'

A. Morgan← S. Carey

78'

J. Lawrence-Gabriel← C. Hamilton

84'

K. Abrefa← C. Mola

84'

J. Wareham← O. Azeez

84'

M. Virtue-Thick← K. Joseph

90+6'

Jayden Wareham

90+2'

J. Lawrence-Gabriel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingBlackpool

Overview

47%Possession53%

18Total Shots10

6Corners2

8Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots10

6On Target6

8Off Target4

4Blocked0

14Inside Box8

4Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

398Total Passes462

292Accurate Passes353

73%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1