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Blackpool vs Reading — League One 2018

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Reading
Reading
R. Williams 81'
L. Wing 69' (pen)
K. Doyle 28'
11/29/2025League OneLeague One · Round 18Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Blackpool39%
×Draw23%
Reading37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.64
Reading
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.49
Reading
1.55

allows per match

Blackpool
1.63
Reading
1.79

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less
Reading-0.12scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
63%
Blackpool or Reading
77%
Draw or Reading
61%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
20%
Reading wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
81%
Blackpool 2+ goals
49%
Blackpool 3+ goals
23%
Reading 1+ goals
80%
Reading 2+ goals
47%
Reading 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
51%
Reading (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Reading away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.79 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + Reading defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.64

Reading attack 1.55 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Blackpool scores more
39%
level
23%
Reading scores more
37%

Blackpool at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. PereiraReadingReading · G
7.7

Match Events

27'
Oliver Casey
28'
K. Doyle↳ D. Kyerewaa
58'
E. Hansson← L. Evans
65'
C. Hamilton← A. Lyons
69'
L. WingPenalty
70'
A. Yiadom← J. R. Dorsett A.
81'
S. Banks← M. Ihiekwe
81'
R. Williams
86'
A. Rinomhota← K. Doyle
90'
A. Garcia← R. Williams
90+1'
S. Patton← K. Ehibhatiomhan

Possession

63%Blackpool

Shots

14Blackpool

Pass accuracy

56%Blackpool

Statistics

BlackpoolReading
Overview
63%Possession37%
14Total Shots15
1.11Expected Goals (xG)3.98
2Corners5
9Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots15
5On Target6
8Off Target6
1Blocked3
7Inside Box10
7Outside Box5
Passing
63%Possession37%
490Total Passes282
385Accurate Passes171
79%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls14
1Yellow Cards0
5Offsides2

League One: Blackpool 0–3 Reading

Reading beat Blackpool 3-0 in League One on November 29, 2025.

Goals: K. Doyle (28'), L. Wing (69' pen), R. Williams (81').

Blackpool controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool.