Reading 3–1 Blackpool: Result & Stats

Reading

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Blackpool

T. Ince 72', 13'

A. Carroll 70' (pen)

S. Carey 90+4'

2/25/2023

Championship · Round 34Select Car Leasing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Reading44%

×Draw26%

Blackpool29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReadingExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.13

Reading

1.45

Blackpool

1.13

Reading creates 28% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 52 away

1.38

creates per match

0.92

1.34

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Reading

1.38

Blackpool

0.92

allows per match

Reading

1.34

Blackpool

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reading+0.00on par

Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reading ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Reading or draw

71%

Reading or Blackpool

74%

Draw or Blackpool

56%

Winning margin

Reading wins by 2+

22%

Blackpool wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Reading 1+ goals

77%

Reading 2+ goals

42%

Reading 3+ goals

18%

Blackpool 1+ goals

68%

Blackpool 2+ goals

31%

Blackpool 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Reading (draw refunded)

60%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reading at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reading attack 1.38 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Reading defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Reading scores more

44%

level

26%

Blackpool scores more

29%

Reading at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Reading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

T. Ince

Reading · M

8.6

Match Events

13'

T. Ince↳ Y. Meïté

21'

I. Poveda-Ocampo← S. Lavery

57'

Amadou Salif Mbengue

64'

O. Azeez← J. Hoilett

70'

A. CarrollPenalty

72'

80'

81'

81'

81'

90+1'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReadingBlackpool

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots14

3Corners8

11Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots14

5On Target4

3Off Target3

0Blocked7

7Inside Box8

1Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

302Total Passes408

220Accurate Passes318

73%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Reading vs Blackpool

Reading beat Blackpool 3-1 in Championship on February 25, 2023.

Goals: T. Ince (13', 72'), A. Carroll (70' pen), S. Carey (90+4').

Blackpool controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Select Car Leasing Stadium in Reading, Berkshire.

Reading vs Blackpool — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Reading vs Blackpool