REAC 1–3 Kisvárda II: Result & Stats

REAC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Kisvárda II

3/3/2024

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 18Budai II László Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

REAC31%

×Draw24%

Kisvárda II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

REACExpected goals in this matchKisvárda II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.62

REAC

1.32

Kisvárda II

1.62

Kisvárda II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

1.47

creates per match

1.44

1.80

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

REAC

1.47

Kisvárda II

1.44

allows per match

REAC

1.80

Kisvárda II

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

REAC+0.00on par

Kisvárda II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

REAC ↓

Kisvárda II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

REAC or draw

56%

REAC or Kisvárda II

76%

Draw or Kisvárda II

69%

Winning margin

REAC wins by 2+

14%

Kisvárda II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

REAC 1+ goals

73%

REAC 2+ goals

38%

REAC 3+ goals

15%

Kisvárda II 1+ goals

80%

Kisvárda II 2+ goals

48%

Kisvárda II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

REAC (draw refunded)

41%

Kisvárda II (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

REAC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Kisvárda II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.17 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

REAC attack 1.47 + Kisvárda II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.32

Kisvárda II attack 1.44 + REAC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

REAC scores more

31%

level

24%

Kisvárda II scores more

44%

Kisvárda II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kisvárda II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff