Kisvárda II 4–0 REAC: Result & Stats

Kisvárda II

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

REAC

8/13/2023

NB III - Northeast · Northeast - 3Várkerti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kisvárda II68%

×Draw18%

REAC14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kisvárda IIExpected goals in this matchREAC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.93

Kisvárda II

2.29

REAC

0.93

Kisvárda II creates 146% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

1.79

creates per match

0.80

1.05

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Kisvárda II

1.79

REAC

0.80

allows per match

Kisvárda II

1.05

REAC

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kisvárda II+0.00on par

REAC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisvárda II ↓

REAC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kisvárda II or draw

86%

Kisvárda II or REAC

82%

Draw or REAC

32%

Winning margin

Kisvárda II wins by 2+

44%

REAC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Kisvárda II 1+ goals

90%

Kisvárda II 2+ goals

66%

Kisvárda II 3+ goals

40%

REAC 1+ goals

61%

REAC 2+ goals

24%

REAC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kisvárda II (draw refunded)

83%

REAC (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisvárda II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

REAC away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisvárda II attack 1.79 + REAC defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.29

REAC attack 0.80 + Kisvárda II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Kisvárda II scores more

68%

level

18%

REAC scores more

14%

Kisvárda II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Kisvárda II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff