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REAC vs Diósgyőr II — NB III - Northeast 2019

REAC
REAC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Diósgyőr II
Diósgyőr II
3/31/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 22Budai II László Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

REAC39%
×Draw24%
Diósgyőr II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

REAC
1.58
Diósgyőr II
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 112 away

creates per match

REAC
1.47
Diósgyőr II
1.30

allows per match

REAC
1.80
Diósgyőr II
1.70

finishing

REAC+0.00on par
Diósgyőr II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

REAC ↓

Diósgyőr II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

REAC or draw
63%
REAC or Diósgyőr II
76%
Draw or Diósgyőr II
61%

Winning margin

REAC wins by 2+
19%
Diósgyőr II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

REAC 1+ goals
79%
REAC 2+ goals
47%
REAC 3+ goals
21%
Diósgyőr II 1+ goals
79%
Diósgyőr II 2+ goals
46%
Diósgyőr II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

REAC (draw refunded)
51%
Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

REAC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Diósgyőr II away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.70 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

REAC attack 1.47 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.58

Diósgyőr II attack 1.30 + REAC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

REAC scores more
39%
level
24%
Diósgyőr II scores more
37%

REAC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "REAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: REAC vs Diósgyőr II

Diósgyőr II beat REAC 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Budai II László Stadion in Budapest.