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Diósgyőr II vs REAC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Diósgyőr II
Diósgyőr II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
REAC
REAC
9/9/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 7DVTK Edzőcentrum Füves Edzőpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Diósgyőr II60%
×Draw20%
REAC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Diósgyőr II
2.26
REAC
1.25

Diósgyőr II creates 81% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 15 away

creates per match

Diósgyőr II
1.73
REAC
0.80

allows per match

Diósgyőr II
1.69
REAC
2.80

finishing

Diósgyőr II+0.00on par
REAC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Diósgyőr II ↓

REAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Diósgyőr II or draw
80%
Diósgyőr II or REAC
80%
Draw or REAC
40%

Winning margin

Diósgyőr II wins by 2+
38%
REAC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Diósgyőr II 1+ goals
89%
Diósgyőr II 2+ goals
66%
Diósgyőr II 3+ goals
39%
REAC 1+ goals
71%
REAC 2+ goals
36%
REAC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Diósgyőr II (draw refunded)
75%
REAC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Diósgyőr II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 110 matches

REAC away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Diósgyőr II attack 1.73 + REAC defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.26

REAC attack 0.80 + Diósgyőr II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Diósgyőr II scores more
60%
level
20%
REAC scores more
20%

Diósgyőr II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Diósgyőr II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Diósgyőr II vs REAC

Diósgyőr II beat REAC 4-1 in NB III - Northeast on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at DVTK Edzőcentrum Füves Edzőpálya in Miskolc.