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REAC vs Cigand SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

REAC
REAC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Cigand SE
Cigand SE
4/14/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 24Budai II László Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

REAC32%
×Draw24%
Cigand SE44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

REAC
1.42
Cigand SE
1.69

Cigand SE creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

REAC
1.47
Cigand SE
1.58

allows per match

REAC
1.80
Cigand SE
1.38

finishing

REAC+0.00on par
Cigand SE+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

REAC ↓

Cigand SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

REAC or draw
56%
REAC or Cigand SE
76%
Draw or Cigand SE
68%

Winning margin

REAC wins by 2+
15%
Cigand SE wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

REAC 1+ goals
76%
REAC 2+ goals
41%
REAC 3+ goals
17%
Cigand SE 1+ goals
82%
Cigand SE 2+ goals
50%
Cigand SE 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

REAC (draw refunded)
42%
Cigand SE (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

REAC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Cigand SE away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

REAC attack 1.47 + Cigand SE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cigand SE attack 1.58 + REAC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

REAC scores more
32%
level
24%
Cigand SE scores more
44%

Cigand SE at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cigand SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

REAC 1 – 2 Cigand SE

Cigand SE beat REAC 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Budai II László Stadion in Budapest.