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Cigand SE vs REAC — NB III - Northeast 2019

Cigand SE
Cigand SE
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
REAC
REAC
M. Silling 83'
Z. Pap 75'
G. Kelemen 60'
10/1/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 9Cigánd Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cigand SE74%
×Draw16%
REAC9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cigand SE
2.39
REAC
0.71

Cigand SE creates 237% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cigand SE
1.98
REAC
0.80

allows per match

Cigand SE
0.62
REAC
2.80

finishing

Cigand SE+0.00on par
REAC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cigand SE ↓

REAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cigand SE or draw
91%
Cigand SE or REAC
84%
Draw or REAC
26%

Winning margin

Cigand SE wins by 2+
51%
REAC wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Cigand SE 1+ goals
91%
Cigand SE 2+ goals
69%
Cigand SE 3+ goals
42%
REAC 1+ goals
51%
REAC 2+ goals
16%
REAC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cigand SE (draw refunded)
89%
REAC (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cigand SE at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

REAC away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cigand SE attack 1.98 + REAC defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.39

REAC attack 0.80 + Cigand SE defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Cigand SE scores more
74%
level
16%
REAC scores more
9%

Cigand SE at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Cigand SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'
G. Kelemen
75'
Z. Pap
83'
M. Silling

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cigand SE 3 – 0 REAC

Cigand SE beat REAC 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on October 1, 2023.

Goals: G. Kelemen (60'), Z. Pap (75'), M. Silling (83').

The match was played at Cigánd Városi Stadion in Cigánd.