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RCP Valverdeño vs Extremadura UD II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

RCP Valverdeño
RCP Valverdeño
CANC
00:00
Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 31Estadio Municipal San Roque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

RCP Valverdeño35%
×Draw27%
Extremadura UD II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RCP Valverdeño
1.18
Extremadura UD II
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 42 away

creates per match

RCP Valverdeño
1.11
Extremadura UD II
0.93

allows per match

RCP Valverdeño
1.57
Extremadura UD II
1.24

finishing

RCP Valverdeño+0.00on par
Extremadura UD II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCP Valverdeño ↓

Extremadura UD II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

RCP Valverdeño or draw
62%
RCP Valverdeño or Extremadura UD II
73%
Draw or Extremadura UD II
65%

Winning margin

RCP Valverdeño wins by 2+
14%
Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

RCP Valverdeño 1+ goals
69%
RCP Valverdeño 2+ goals
33%
RCP Valverdeño 3+ goals
12%
Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
71%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
36%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

RCP Valverdeño (draw refunded)
48%
Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RCP Valverdeño at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.57 · 46 matches

Extremadura UD II away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RCP Valverdeño attack 1.11 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Extremadura UD II attack 0.93 + RCP Valverdeño defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

RCP Valverdeño scores more
35%
level
27%
Extremadura UD II scores more
38%

Extremadura UD II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Extremadura UD II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RCP Valverdeño face Extremadura UD II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 returns with RCP Valverdeño hosting Extremadura UD II. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

RCP Valverdeño host Extremadura UD II at Estadio Municipal San Roque.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.