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Extremadura UD II vs RCP Valverdeño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Extremadura UD II
Extremadura UD II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RCP Valverdeño
RCP Valverdeño
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 12Ciudad Deportiva de Almendralejo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Extremadura UD II52%
×Draw25%
RCP Valverdeño23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura UD II
1.60
RCP Valverdeño
0.96

Extremadura UD II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 46 away

creates per match

Extremadura UD II
1.35
RCP Valverdeño
0.72

allows per match

Extremadura UD II
1.20
RCP Valverdeño
1.85

finishing

Extremadura UD II+0.00on par
RCP Valverdeño+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura UD II ↓

RCP Valverdeño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Extremadura UD II or draw
77%
Extremadura UD II or RCP Valverdeño
75%
Draw or RCP Valverdeño
48%

Winning margin

Extremadura UD II wins by 2+
28%
RCP Valverdeño wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Extremadura UD II 1+ goals
80%
Extremadura UD II 2+ goals
47%
Extremadura UD II 3+ goals
22%
RCP Valverdeño 1+ goals
62%
RCP Valverdeño 2+ goals
25%
RCP Valverdeño 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Extremadura UD II (draw refunded)
70%
RCP Valverdeño (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura UD II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 40 matches

RCP Valverdeño away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura UD II attack 1.35 + RCP Valverdeño defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.60

RCP Valverdeño attack 0.72 + Extremadura UD II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Extremadura UD II scores more
52%
level
25%
RCP Valverdeño scores more
23%

Extremadura UD II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Extremadura UD II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Extremadura UD II vs RCP Valverdeño

Extremadura UD II and RCP Valverdeño drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Almendralejo in Almendralejo.