Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

RCP Valverdeño vs Atlético Pueblonuevo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

RCP Valverdeño
RCP Valverdeño
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
4/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 32Estadio Municipal San Roque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

RCP Valverdeño47%
×Draw25%
Atlético Pueblonuevo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RCP Valverdeño
1.61
Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.21

RCP Valverdeño creates 33% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 66 away

creates per match

RCP Valverdeño
1.11
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.85

allows per match

RCP Valverdeño
1.57
Atlético Pueblonuevo
2.11

finishing

RCP Valverdeño+0.00on par
Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCP Valverdeño ↓

Atlético Pueblonuevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

RCP Valverdeño or draw
71%
RCP Valverdeño or Atlético Pueblonuevo
75%
Draw or Atlético Pueblonuevo
53%

Winning margin

RCP Valverdeño wins by 2+
24%
Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

RCP Valverdeño 1+ goals
80%
RCP Valverdeño 2+ goals
48%
RCP Valverdeño 3+ goals
22%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
34%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

RCP Valverdeño (draw refunded)
62%
Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RCP Valverdeño at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.57 · 46 matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RCP Valverdeño attack 1.11 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.61

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 0.85 + RCP Valverdeño defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

RCP Valverdeño scores more
47%
level
25%
Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
29%

RCP Valverdeño at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "RCP Valverdeño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RCP Valverdeño vs Atlético Pueblonuevo

Atlético Pueblonuevo beat RCP Valverdeño 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Roque in Valverde de Leganés.