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Atlético Pueblonuevo vs RCP Valverdeño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
RCP Valverdeño
RCP Valverdeño
12/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 15Estadio Antonio Amaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo53%
×Draw25%
RCP Valverdeño22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.58
RCP Valverdeño
0.92

Atlético Pueblonuevo creates 72% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 46 away

creates per match

Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.30
RCP Valverdeño
0.72

allows per match

Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.11
RCP Valverdeño
1.85

finishing

Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par
RCP Valverdeño+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pueblonuevo ↓

RCP Valverdeño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Pueblonuevo or draw
78%
Atlético Pueblonuevo or RCP Valverdeño
75%
Draw or RCP Valverdeño
47%

Winning margin

Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
28%
RCP Valverdeño wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
47%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
21%
RCP Valverdeño 1+ goals
60%
RCP Valverdeño 2+ goals
23%
RCP Valverdeño 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
71%
RCP Valverdeño (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pueblonuevo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

RCP Valverdeño away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 1.30 + RCP Valverdeño defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.58

RCP Valverdeño attack 0.72 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
53%
level
25%
RCP Valverdeño scores more
22%

Atlético Pueblonuevo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atlético Pueblonuevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Pueblonuevo vs RCP Valverdeño

Atlético Pueblonuevo and RCP Valverdeño drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Amaya in Pueblonuevo del Guadiana.