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RCK vs Bukavu Dawa — Ligue 1 2019

RCK
RCK
FT
1 – 2
Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
2/26/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

RCK47%
×Draw26%
Bukavu Dawa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RCK
1.46
Bukavu Dawa
1.04

RCK creates 40% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 27 away

creates per match

RCK
0.95
Bukavu Dawa
0.81

allows per match

RCK
1.26
Bukavu Dawa
1.96

finishing

RCK+0.00on par
Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCK ↓

Bukavu Dawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

RCK or draw
73%
RCK or Bukavu Dawa
74%
Draw or Bukavu Dawa
53%

Winning margin

RCK wins by 2+
23%
Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

RCK 1+ goals
77%
RCK 2+ goals
43%
RCK 3+ goals
18%
Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
65%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
28%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RCK (draw refunded)
63%
Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RCK at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Bukavu Dawa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.96 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RCK attack 0.95 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.81 + RCK defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

RCK scores more
47%
level
26%
Bukavu Dawa scores more
27%

RCK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "RCK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: RCK 1–2 Bukavu Dawa

Bukavu Dawa beat RCK 2-1 in Ligue 1 on February 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.