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Bukavu Dawa vs RCK — Ligue 1 2019

Bukavu Dawa
Bukavu Dawa
FT
0 – 3
RCK
RCK
10/30/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 8Stade de la Concorde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bukavu Dawa37%
×Draw31%
RCK32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bukavu Dawa
1.04
RCK
0.93

Bukavu Dawa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 34 away

creates per match

Bukavu Dawa
0.52
RCK
0.65

allows per match

Bukavu Dawa
1.21
RCK
1.56

finishing

Bukavu Dawa+0.00on par
RCK+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bukavu Dawa ↓

RCK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bukavu Dawa or draw
68%
Bukavu Dawa or RCK
69%
Draw or RCK
63%

Winning margin

Bukavu Dawa wins by 2+
15%
RCK wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bukavu Dawa 1+ goals
65%
Bukavu Dawa 2+ goals
28%
Bukavu Dawa 3+ goals
9%
RCK 1+ goals
61%
RCK 2+ goals
24%
RCK 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bukavu Dawa (draw refunded)
54%
RCK (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bukavu Dawa at home — creates 0.52, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

RCK away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bukavu Dawa attack 0.52 + RCK defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.04

RCK attack 0.65 + Bukavu Dawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bukavu Dawa scores more
37%
level
31%
RCK scores more
32%

Bukavu Dawa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bukavu Dawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Bukavu Dawa 0–3 RCK

RCK beat Bukavu Dawa 3-0 in Ligue 1 on October 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de la Concorde in Bukavu.