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RCA vs NEC Res. — Division di Honor 2019

RCA
RCA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
NEC Res.
NEC Res.
2/13/2022Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 10Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

RCA57%
×Draw18%
NEC Res.25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RCA
2.80
NEC Res.
1.84

RCA creates 52% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 13 away

creates per match

RCA
2.30
NEC Res.
2.54

allows per match

RCA
1.15
NEC Res.
3.31

finishing

RCA+0.00on par
NEC Res.+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCA ↓

NEC Res. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

RCA or draw
75%
RCA or NEC Res.
82%
Draw or NEC Res.
43%

Winning margin

RCA wins by 2+
38%
NEC Res. wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

RCA 1+ goals
94%
RCA 2+ goals
76%
RCA 3+ goals
52%
NEC Res. 1+ goals
84%
NEC Res. 2+ goals
55%
NEC Res. 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

RCA (draw refunded)
70%
NEC Res. (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RCA at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

NEC Res. away — creates 2.54, concedes 3.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RCA attack 2.30 + NEC Res. defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.80

NEC Res. attack 2.54 + RCA defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

RCA scores more
57%
level
18%
NEC Res. scores more
25%

RCA at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "RCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RCA vs NEC Res.

RCA and NEC Res. drew 1-1 in Division di Honor on February 13, 2022.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.