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NEC Res. vs RCA — Division di Honor 2019

NEC Res.
NEC Res.
FT
0 – 9
HT: 0 – 6
RCA
RCA
10/22/2022Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 6Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

NEC Res.8%
×Draw11%
RCA81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NEC Res.
1.05
RCA
3.46

RCA creates 230% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 68 away

creates per match

NEC Res.
1.14
RCA
2.50

allows per match

NEC Res.
4.43
RCA
0.96

finishing

NEC Res.+0.00on par
RCA+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NEC Res. ↓

RCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–38%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

NEC Res. or draw
19%
NEC Res. or RCA
89%
Draw or RCA
92%

Winning margin

NEC Res. wins by 2+
3%
RCA wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

NEC Res. 1+ goals
65%
NEC Res. 2+ goals
28%
NEC Res. 3+ goals
9%
RCA 1+ goals
97%
RCA 2+ goals
85%
RCA 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

NEC Res. (draw refunded)
9%
RCA (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NEC Res. at home — creates 1.14, concedes 4.43 · 14 matches

RCA away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.96 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NEC Res. attack 1.14 + RCA defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.05

RCA attack 2.50 + NEC Res. defence 4.43 → ÷2 → 3.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

NEC Res. scores more
8%
level
11%
RCA scores more
81%

RCA at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "RCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NEC Res. 0 – 9 RCA

RCA beat NEC Res. 9-0 in Division di Honor on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.