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RCA vs Caravel — Division di Honor 2019

RCA
RCA
FT
9 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Caravel
Caravel
3/5/2022Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 12Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

RCA61%
×Draw19%
Caravel20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RCA
2.47
Caravel
1.36

RCA creates 82% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 28 away

creates per match

RCA
2.30
Caravel
1.57

allows per match

RCA
1.15
Caravel
2.64

finishing

RCA+0.00on par
Caravel+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RCA ↓

Caravel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

RCA or draw
80%
RCA or Caravel
81%
Draw or Caravel
39%

Winning margin

RCA wins by 2+
40%
Caravel wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

RCA 1+ goals
91%
RCA 2+ goals
70%
RCA 3+ goals
44%
Caravel 1+ goals
74%
Caravel 2+ goals
39%
Caravel 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

RCA (draw refunded)
75%
Caravel (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RCA at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

Caravel away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RCA attack 2.30 + Caravel defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.47

Caravel attack 1.57 + RCA defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

RCA scores more
61%
level
19%
Caravel scores more
20%

RCA at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "RCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RCA 9 – 0 Caravel

RCA beat Caravel 9-0 in Division di Honor on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.