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Caravel vs RCA — Division di Honor 2019

Caravel
Caravel
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
RCA
RCA
11/12/2022Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 8Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Caravel15%
×Draw17%
RCA68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caravel
1.19
RCA
2.63

RCA creates 121% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 68 away

creates per match

Caravel
1.43
RCA
2.50

allows per match

Caravel
2.75
RCA
0.96

finishing

Caravel+0.00on par
RCA+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caravel ↓

RCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Caravel or draw
32%
Caravel or RCA
83%
Draw or RCA
85%

Winning margin

Caravel wins by 2+
6%
RCA wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Caravel 1+ goals
70%
Caravel 2+ goals
33%
Caravel 3+ goals
12%
RCA 1+ goals
93%
RCA 2+ goals
73%
RCA 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Caravel (draw refunded)
19%
RCA (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caravel at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

RCA away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.96 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caravel attack 1.43 + RCA defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.19

RCA attack 2.50 + Caravel defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Caravel scores more
15%
level
17%
RCA scores more
68%

RCA at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "RCA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caravel vs RCA

RCA beat Caravel 6-1 in Division di Honor on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.