RC Relizane 2–1 Olympique Medea: Result & Stats

RC Relizane

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Olympique Medea

12/28/2021

Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade Tahar Zoughari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

RC Relizane44%

×Draw28%

Olympique Medea29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RC RelizaneExpected goals in this matchOlympique Medea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.01

RC Relizane

1.32

Olympique Medea

1.01

RC Relizane creates 31% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 53 away

1.18

creates per match

0.68

1.33

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

RC Relizane

1.18

Olympique Medea

0.68

allows per match

RC Relizane

1.33

Olympique Medea

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RC Relizane+0.00on par

Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Relizane ↓

Olympique Medea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

RC Relizane or draw

71%

RC Relizane or Olympique Medea

72%

Draw or Olympique Medea

56%

Winning margin

RC Relizane wins by 2+

20%

Olympique Medea wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

RC Relizane 1+ goals

73%

RC Relizane 2+ goals

38%

RC Relizane 3+ goals

15%

Olympique Medea 1+ goals

64%

Olympique Medea 2+ goals

27%

Olympique Medea 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

RC Relizane (draw refunded)

60%

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Relizane at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

Olympique Medea away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Relizane attack 1.18 + Olympique Medea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Olympique Medea attack 0.68 + RC Relizane defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

RC Relizane scores more

44%

level

28%

Olympique Medea scores more

29%

RC Relizane at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "RC Relizane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff