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Olympique Medea vs RC Relizane — Ligue 1 2018

Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
RC Relizane
RC Relizane
4/22/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 27Stade Imam Lyes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Olympique Medea57%
×Draw23%
RC Relizane20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Medea
1.76
RC Relizane
0.92

Olympique Medea creates 91% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 40 away

creates per match

Olympique Medea
1.14
RC Relizane
0.80

allows per match

Olympique Medea
1.04
RC Relizane
2.38

finishing

Olympique Medea+0.00on par
RC Relizane+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Medea ↓

RC Relizane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Olympique Medea or draw
80%
Olympique Medea or RC Relizane
77%
Draw or RC Relizane
43%

Winning margin

Olympique Medea wins by 2+
32%
RC Relizane wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Olympique Medea 1+ goals
83%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
52%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
26%
RC Relizane 1+ goals
60%
RC Relizane 2+ goals
23%
RC Relizane 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
75%
RC Relizane (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Medea at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

RC Relizane away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.38 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Medea attack 1.14 + RC Relizane defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.76

RC Relizane attack 0.80 + Olympique Medea defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Olympique Medea scores more
57%
level
23%
RC Relizane scores more
20%

Olympique Medea at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Olympique Medea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Medea vs RC Relizane

Olympique Medea beat RC Relizane 2-0 in Ligue 1 on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Imam Lyes in Médéa.