RC Relizane 0–2 AS AIN Mlila: Result & Stats

RC Relizane

FT

0 – 2

AS AIN Mlila

1/19/2018

League #187 · Round 17Stade Tahar Zoughari (Relizane)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

RC Relizane27%

×Draw28%

AS AIN Mlila44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RC RelizaneExpected goals in this matchAS AIN Mlila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.28

RC Relizane

0.93

AS AIN Mlila

1.28

AS AIN Mlila creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

0.57

2.00

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

RC Relizane

1.00

AS AIN Mlila

0.57

allows per match

RC Relizane

2.00

AS AIN Mlila

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RC Relizane+0.00on par

AS AIN Mlila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Relizane ↓

AS AIN Mlila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

RC Relizane or draw

56%

RC Relizane or AS AIN Mlila

72%

Draw or AS AIN Mlila

73%

Winning margin

RC Relizane wins by 2+

9%

AS AIN Mlila wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

RC Relizane 1+ goals

61%

RC Relizane 2+ goals

24%

RC Relizane 3+ goals

7%

AS AIN Mlila 1+ goals

72%

AS AIN Mlila 2+ goals

37%

AS AIN Mlila 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

RC Relizane (draw refunded)

38%

AS AIN Mlila (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Relizane at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

AS AIN Mlila away — creates 0.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Relizane attack 1.00 + AS AIN Mlila defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

AS AIN Mlila attack 0.57 + RC Relizane defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

RC Relizane scores more

27%

level

28%

AS AIN Mlila scores more

44%

AS AIN Mlila at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AS AIN Mlila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff