RC Arba 1–3 Paradou AC: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

RC Arba

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Paradou AC

7/15/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 30Stade Smaïl-Makhlouf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

RC Arba45%

×Draw26%

Paradou AC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RC ArbaExpected goals in this matchParadou AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.11

RC Arba

1.47

Paradou AC

1.11

RC Arba creates 32% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 120 away

1.61

creates per match

1.07

1.15

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

RC Arba

1.61

Paradou AC

1.07

allows per match

RC Arba

1.15

Paradou AC

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RC Arba+0.00on par

Paradou AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Arba ↓

Paradou AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

RC Arba or draw

71%

RC Arba or Paradou AC

74%

Draw or Paradou AC

55%

Winning margin

RC Arba wins by 2+

22%

Paradou AC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

RC Arba 1+ goals

77%

RC Arba 2+ goals

43%

RC Arba 3+ goals

18%

Paradou AC 1+ goals

67%

Paradou AC 2+ goals

30%

Paradou AC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

RC Arba (draw refunded)

61%

Paradou AC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Arba at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

Paradou AC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Arba attack 1.61 + Paradou AC defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.47

Paradou AC attack 1.07 + RC Arba defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

RC Arba scores more

45%

level

26%

Paradou AC scores more

29%

RC Arba at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "RC Arba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff