Paradou AC 1–2 RC Arba: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Paradou AC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

RC Arba

1/7/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 12Stade Dar El Beïda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Paradou AC51%

×Draw26%

RC Arba23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paradou ACExpected goals in this matchRC Arba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.90

Paradou AC

1.48

RC Arba

0.90

Paradou AC creates 64% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 32 away

1.41

creates per match

0.81

0.98

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Paradou AC

1.41

RC Arba

0.81

allows per match

Paradou AC

0.98

RC Arba

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paradou AC+0.00on par

RC Arba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paradou AC ↓

RC Arba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Paradou AC or draw

77%

Paradou AC or RC Arba

74%

Draw or RC Arba

49%

Winning margin

Paradou AC wins by 2+

26%

RC Arba wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Paradou AC 1+ goals

77%

Paradou AC 2+ goals

43%

Paradou AC 3+ goals

19%

RC Arba 1+ goals

59%

RC Arba 2+ goals

23%

RC Arba 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Paradou AC (draw refunded)

69%

RC Arba (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paradou AC at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.98 · 122 matches

RC Arba away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paradou AC attack 1.41 + RC Arba defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

RC Arba attack 0.81 + Paradou AC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Paradou AC scores more

51%

level

26%

RC Arba scores more

23%

Paradou AC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Paradou AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff