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RC Arba vs Hussein Dey — Ligue 1 2018

RC Arba
RC Arba
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hussein Dey
Hussein Dey
1/25/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade Smaïl-Makhlouf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

RC Arba51%
×Draw25%
Hussein Dey24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RC Arba
1.56
Hussein Dey
0.97

RC Arba creates 61% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 63 away

creates per match

RC Arba
1.61
Hussein Dey
0.79

allows per match

RC Arba
1.15
Hussein Dey
1.52

finishing

RC Arba+0.00on par
Hussein Dey+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RC Arba ↓

Hussein Dey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

RC Arba or draw
76%
RC Arba or Hussein Dey
75%
Draw or Hussein Dey
49%

Winning margin

RC Arba wins by 2+
26%
Hussein Dey wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

RC Arba 1+ goals
79%
RC Arba 2+ goals
46%
RC Arba 3+ goals
21%
Hussein Dey 1+ goals
62%
Hussein Dey 2+ goals
25%
Hussein Dey 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

RC Arba (draw refunded)
68%
Hussein Dey (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RC Arba at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

Hussein Dey away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.52 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RC Arba attack 1.61 + Hussein Dey defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Hussein Dey attack 0.79 + RC Arba defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

RC Arba scores more
51%
level
25%
Hussein Dey scores more
24%

RC Arba at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "RC Arba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: RC Arba 3–1 Hussein Dey

RC Arba beat Hussein Dey 3-1 in Ligue 1 on January 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Smaïl-Makhlouf in Larbaâ.